DGRC Reports

Background to the Reports

In the summer of 1999 John Taylor, Director General of the Research Councils, asked ESRC to conduct a study to identify the possible 'shape of success' for the UK in ICT and Biotech in the year 2005. CRIC conducted the work, in collaboration with other academics in Manchester, academics from other universities in the UK, and with Cambridge Econometrics Ltd. In March 2000 the resulting analysis, in the form of a range of scenarios for 2005, was fed into 2 high level 2-day workshops. These workshops - one for ICT and one for Biotechnology - involved senior industrialists, venture capitalists, heads of research councils, and staff from relevant government departments. They worked through the material assembled by CRIC and generated their own final version of a credible success scenario for 2005.

These two reports describe these scenarios for 2005, and are now offered to a wider readership for discussion and debate.

1. INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES IN THE UK
   A SCENARIO FOR SUCCESS IN 2005
   
   
2. BIOTECHNOLOGY IN THE UK
   A SCENARIO FOR SUCCESS IN 2005

INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES IN THE UK
A SCENARIO FOR SUCCESS IN 2005

Executive Summary

This report addresses the question:

What would 'success' look like in the field of ICT, in the UK, by 2005?

Success is defined here as maintaining and improving the commercial strength of UK-based organisations which develop, sell, or apply ICTs for national and global markets, and therefore enhancing our relative economic progress. It also means the UK improving its attractiveness for companies of all nationalities as a place to site value-adding activities which are based around ICTs. The purpose of having such a vision of success in ICTs in 2005 is to set a 'stretch target' for all the stakeholders in this area; and to give those involved in the UK science base a better idea of how a successful ICT activity would exert a strong 'pull' on the science base.

The report presents the result of a substantial research project, which culminated in a two day workshop in February 2000. At the workshop, which involved 20 individuals from ICT-based companies operating in the UK, from relevant Government agencies, and from the major public research bodies in the UK, a scenario for success in ICTs in 2005 was developed. The scenario is seen as attractive, being more than just a continuation of current trends, but still credible, given prompt action by those concerned. Some key elements of the scenario are:

• UK-based firms taking leading positions in the development of mobile computing, and contributing to new global standards in the area
• A further improvement in the availability of venture capital, and in experimentation with new business models
• Strong UK 'content' companies emerging in fields such as E-education and E-health
• Cheap access combined with demanding consumers for ICT services which creates a population which is also skilled and innovative in ICT innovation.
• Government agencies leading the way in releasing the commercial value of under-utilised information through the Internet.
• Rapid growth of B2B and B2C e-commerce.

The economic consequences of the scenario are dramatic:

• Production of ICT goods and services growing in its share of the economy and adding 0.3% to the percentage GDP growth rate
• Production of ICT goods and services being responsible for one third of employment growth in the economy
• A balance of trade deficit in ICTs being converted to a trade surplus
• A reduction in price inflation of nearly one percentage point.

These are profound and far-reaching changes. They would have major consequences for citizens, businesses and government. As scenario statements, they are based on painting a picture which is admittedly optimistic, but also realistic. What remains is for businesses and policy makers to take some of the steps which are implied by the scenario, in order to achieve the targets.

[Download full document]      [Further details on the DGRC project]
(106Kb - pdf format)

BIOTECHNOLOGY IN THE UK
A SCENARIO FOR SUCCESS IN 2005

Executive Summary

This report addresses the question:

What would 'success' look like in the field of biotechnology, in the UK, by 2005?

Success is defined here as maintaining and improving the commercial strength of UK-based organisations which develop, sell, or apply biotechnology for national and global markets, and therefore enhancing our relative economic progress. It also means the UK improving its attractiveness for companies of all nationalities as a place to site value-adding activities which are based around biotechnology. The purpose of having such a vision of success in biotechnology in 2005 is to set a 'stretch target' for all the stakeholders in this area; and to give those involved in the UK science base a better idea of how successful biotechnology activity would exert a strong 'pull' on the science base.

The report presents the result of a substantial research project, which culminated in a two day workshop in February 2000. At the workshop, which involved 20 individuals from biotechnology-based companies operating in the UK, from government agencies, and from the major public research bodies in the UK, a scenario for biotechnology in 2005 was developed. The scenario is seen as attractive, and more than just a continuation of current trends, but still credible, given prompt action by those concerned. Some key elements of the scenario are:

• A significant proportion of pharmaceutical innovations will be based on genomics and genetics, if not in the drugs themselves, then in the methods used to identify and develop and target them to responsive patients.
• Biotechnology applications in the food industry in the UK continue to be hampered by problems of public confidence but there will be new markets for some higher-value-added products (e.g. 'nutraceuticals' and biosensors).
• There are a number of non-controversial applications of genomics - in public health policy, in environmental remediation and traditional crop breeding.
• The NHS (as a market), NICE and the FSA become champions of biotechnology innovation.
• Active growth of quality dedicated biotechnology firms supported by more venture capital, large healthcare and agrifood firms and a strong science base.
• Harmonisation of the European patent system and a credible, transparent European-wide regulatory framework.

The economic consequences of the scenario are significant:

• The contribution of biotechnology-related impacts to the annual average rate of GDP growth will be approximately 0.2 percentage points per year.
• The UK pharmaceutical trade surplus, currently over £2billion, will double by 2005, with some of this attributable to biotechnology.

These changes imply major consequences for citizens, businesses and government. As scenario statements, they are based on painting a picture which is admittedly optimistic, but is also realistic. What remains is for businesses and policy makers to take some of the steps which are implied by the scenario, in order to achieve these targets.

[Download full document]      [Further details on the DGRC project]
(108Kb - pdf format)

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